Economic Roadmap for 2009

EDGARDO G. LACSON, President, PCCI
Joint General Membership meeting
Economic Roadmap 2009

16 January 2008, 12:00 nn
Grand Ballroom, Intercontinental Hotel-Makati


By now, all of us are familiar with the financial crisis that started in the United States but has eventually damaged the global economy as the problem turned troubles to trauma.

After Lehman Brothers, filed for bankruptcy, a domino effect ensued with numerous financial institutions not only in the United States but in other countries as well seeking financial assistance. Soon after, countries like Korea, Pakistan, and Iceland, and even countries in Eastern Europe like Hungary and Ukraine, to mention a few, are likewise asking for hefty financial support packages.

There seems to be no end in sight yet to the global financial turmoil. Leading industrialized nations across the globe are now into recession. China is in a sharp slowdown. Starting with financial institutions, we now see contractions in major industries like automotive, airlines, and the services sectors, specifically in the hotel and retail industries, with many companies seeking for bail outs. And even in the distressful moment there is some comic relief when theus porn Industry asked for a $5 billion bailout as it claims people can do without cars but people can not do without sex. Who knows, the mafia and other drug cartels may be preparing their respective position papers on the matter.

Levity aside, the seriousness of the issue at hand cannot be underestimated. Confidence in the world financial system is almost totally shattered. And it is confusion worse by the recent Madoff scam incident. Unless and until confidence returns, we are in for a tough ride. As we speak, the after-effects of the financial crisis continue to unfold in every conceivable portion of the world First, was the loss of asset values followed by the loss of jobs, and now we helplessly watch the loss of lives as prominent and lesser fund managers and investors committed suicide. Thankfully, Filipino are made of sterner stuff we may bend but we will never break. We can only hope that the bitter pills being administered by financial authorities while still struggling to comprehend the magnitude of the crisis, would have immediate positive effects to prevent a deep and prolonged global economic recession.

In the years ahead, many countries including the Philippines, will continue to experience the effects of a turbulent and volatile world as a new financial order takes shape from the current economic turmoil. This is the new reality we need to face, we believe. That the dogmas of the quiet past are no longer adequate to the stormy present.

For us today, what is critical is to determine how we will cope with the extraordinary uncertainty permeating today’s business environment, so that we need not lurch from crisis to crisis.

And we are very pleased to have our government’s economic managers To roll out the various government economic programs that would help mitigate and prepare the country from the impact of a slowing global economy.

In the spirit of public-private sector partnership, we have also invited today a panel of reactors from each of the major business organization to provide further insights and analysis on the issues at hand.

At this point, let me take this opportunity to thank all the major business organizations whom I have acknowledged earlier, for their active involvement in making today’s program possible.

The world’s response, and our own, to the financial crisis must be such that the solutions today do not become the problems of tomorrow. As the impact of the crisis ripples through our economy, we need to understand and define clearly the larger role for government in terms of outright ownership of former private-sector assets or tighter regulation. As countries, including the Philippines, implement their respective programs in coping with the crisis, we must cautious in the possible swing of the pendulum from, firstly, a fully unregulated free market economy to excessive regulation and secondly, from open economies to protectionist policies.

Purposely I laid out all the grim scenarios around us not to dampen our hopes but to stress the urgency for collective action.

Mark Coleman- Shogun Rua Fight

Stamina was the deciding factor that finally sealed the fate of the fighters in the Coleman-Shogun revenge fight yesterday. When the fighters were introduced, Coleman did not look like the fighter that he was when he fought Don Frye or when he became the first heavyweight champion of the UFC. The well defined abs and chest muscles were gone. But I thought maybe Coleman focused more on cardio exercise as part of his training. Maybe it was a game plan to outlast Shogun in the supposedly fifteen minute fight.

Shogun, on the other hand, looked fresh and back in shape after all the operations he underwent.

Coleman came in the first quarter pumped up, taking down Shogun at will and pummeling him with his signature ground and pound. Shogun even managed to put in good kicks to the left knee of Coleman and I thought that Coleman was going down, like in the Pedro Rizzo- Dan Severn fight.

On the second quarter, things looked very familiar. Coleman again took down Shogun, but after Shogun was able to stand up, Coleman looked very, very tired he could not even put his hands up to defend himself.

What was surprising was Shogun looked even more tired. I did not expect Shogun to lose steam like Coleman. Both looked very tired, old fighters wanting just to finish the round and get it over with.

On the third round, I had the idea that if Coleman keeps it up, he might just pull a winner here. He was taking down Shogun at will even though he was getting hit bad. But before the third round ended, Coleman was hit with a combination ending with a devastating upper cut which brought him down. The referee stopped the fight with Mark Coleman vehemently protesting why the fight was stopped.

I agree with Joe Rogan that even though Shogun won, his victory did not look good in terms of getting him future fights. His win was far from impressive and he did not show the talents of the Shogun Rua of old. Looking at his past fights would show how much he has lost in terms of speed and hunger to win.

Coleman and Shogun need to increase their speed and lenghten their fighting stamina. There are younger, faster and more exciting fighter out there and their performance yesterday might just as well put them in a very long waiting list for a next fight.

Thanks for all your emails. Let's keep this thing up.

Why Fighters Fail

Many great fighters fail not because they lack the skill to win, but because they lack the stamina to finish the fight. This is true not only in the boxing world but also in the arena of mixed martial arts (MMA).

One of my favorite fighters in the UFC is Mark "the Hammer" Coleman. He has dominated a period in the history of martial arts when fighters in UFC has not yet universalized their skills. Coleman created the technique "ground and pound" where, because of his well-sculpted, muscular, he-man, body, he would "take-down" his opponent at will and pound them to submission, or until they are knocked out. I especially remember his fight with Don Frye which is a classic.

During my exciting days as a youth introduced in the world of the octagon, I have not yet seen Don Frye lose. He always won with style and his skill inside the octagon was impeccable. Then came "The Hammer". I saw Coleman fight and I said to myself there is no way this guy is going to lose to anyone. He was very hard to take down because of his bulky built and muscular physique. So you can just imagine the thrill of watching these two excellent warriors fight. It was a no-holds-barred edge-of-your-seat gladiator clash.

Marc Coleman grounded and pounded Don Frye like there was no tomorrow and the result was a devastating victory for the Hammer. I have never seen Frye's face punished to submission.

However, the UFC was evolving fast with the entry of various fighting styles from different schools. Pete Williams fought Marc Coleman in the UFC and it was a fight I did not want to remember.

Coleman lost steam, he lost stamina during the final rounds and I could remember him breathing hard holding into his knees looking at Pete before Pete delivered that powerful punishing kick to the face. Yes, a kick to the face as clean as a whistle. This brought to the sunshine Coleman's weakness. He could not fight effectively in the late rounds because of lack of stamina.

Boxers face an equal roadblock. I have seen it in the fights of Oscar de la Hoya with Shane Mosley and Tito Trinidad. Oscar could have won if he gave it his all in the last remaining three rounds.

This is one reason why boxers need to jog long and hard during their training. They need at least six to eight weeks of cardio exercise, meaning exercise involving the conditioning of the heart. Boxers need to be prepared to fight thirty rounds.

Have you seen the fights during the early 1900s where boxers had to fight for forty 3-minute rounds? If the fight went the distance, they would have fought for 120 minutes, or 2 hours. Imagine 2 grueling hours of hand to hand combat with the same man exchanging blows until the other guy fell to the canvass.

But, boxers need to be prepared for long fights not because they need to satisfy the crowd or anything but because they need to be strong and physically and mentally fit after to fight for the sake of their health. One of my favorite fights which I will not mention here, ended up with the other boxer becoming brain dead. This is because the other surviving fighter trained hard to fight well after 15 rounds.

As of now, I like the training regiment of Oscar Larios, the Mexican champion who fought Manny Pacquiao a few years back. I heard he was a long distance runner which allowed him to go the distance with the Pacman during their bout.

In conclusion, stamina plays a very important role in the destiny and success of a fighter. Though ensuring a strong stamina will not guarantee victory, it will improve the chances of a fighter, coupled with dedicated training and improvement in skill.

Boxing Tips to be World Champion

It feels very good that Manny Pacquiao was able to execute his plan of attack during his fight with De la Hoya. He also managed to follow some of my tips to win. I wonder why most Filipino fighters don't just emulate or copy Pacquiao's training regiment. I feel that if you want to be a winner, you must do what winners do. If I was a new boxer and I want to make it big and fight in world boxing championships, here is what I will do to win:

TIPS TO BE A GOOD BOXER

1. Have a list of Pacquiao's training technique and schedules. This means knowing what exercise is best for the body, knowing what time to wake up, train, and sleep, knowing what to eat, and knowing how to condition your mind to fight like a tiger, to fight like the Pacman.

2. Exercise. Wake up at 4:30 AM and jog until 6:00 AM preferably with no breakfast, just bring water. Afterwards, work those abs, work them real hard, really hard. Get good shoes, heavy gloves (for training only, and good running shoes. I prefer using the same shoes I use for training in the actual fight.

Important secret: During jogging and training while punishing the punching bag, I suggest you put weights, about two pounds each, which you can strap in your ankles and wrists. I recommend you do this all the time during training. Once the fight begins, take it off, and you will feel as light as a feather. You will be jabbing, throwing power punches, and dancing inside the ring with superior speed. You will knock out your opponent in no time at all.

3. Eat the right food. Protein and vegetables are preferred. No sugar, no junk foods. Drink lots of water.

4. Focus. Focus on what you want singularly. Meaning, think of nothing else but being the best boxer in the world and do nothing to divert from that goal.

5. Spar with a boxer as big and as fast as your next opponent. It is important that you have a spar mate who can mimic your next opponent. Some boxers who have made it in the big time have the resources to pay for a spar mate. For those who do not have this advantage, I suggest you get at least a regular spar mate, maybe another boxer-friend, who can copy your opponent's style.

6. Know your enemy. Master how your opponent drops his right hand everytime he jabs with the left. See if your opponent attacks with hands down and see how he reacts when you jab. Does he move away, does he stay in place and just bobs and weaves, or does he block it with his hands.

Watch the videos from the previous fights of your opponent but do not depend on it one hundred percent. These videos may be inaccurate because the fighter may have improved over the years. Look at what happened to De La Hoya who thought that he is fighting the same Pacquiao who was defeated by Erik Morales in the first Pacquiao- Morales fight.

7. Pray. Most important of all is to pray. Pray as hard as you train. Train like it is your last fight, and pray like there is no tomorrow.

Good luck to all boxers. Let us bring the sport to a new level this year!

What Pacquiao Should Do To Win Fight With Oscar (Confidential, Pacquiao fans Only)

I really did not want to publish this for fear that it might be read by Oscar de la Hoya and his fans, but I cannot contact Manny and I think this is the best way I could help him as a Filipino fan.

As Manny prepares for the fight of his life, here are some pointers he should remember before he steps into the ring with Oscar.

1. Manny should remember to always bob and weave and move his head left to right. This will make him hard to hit and this will frustrate Oscar Dela Hoya, in effect making Oscar work harder and making him more tired in the later rounds.

2. Manny should dance. Remember how he danced during the first Barrera fight? I think that is the best Pacquiao I have seen. Manny should do that again in his fight with Oscar. He should use the four corners of the ring to his advantage. Manny has the advantage of speed in this fight and he should make Oscar chase him.

3. I think Oscar will be flat footed in this fight. Manny need to use his foot speed and go around Oscar like what Manny did in his fight with Jorge Solis. Manny was running circles around Jorge who was much taller and had the reach advantage.

4. Oscar's left hook will be his only asset, the hook that dropped Mayorga and Vargas. Manny should move his head to his left to reduce the effect of any left hook thrown by Oscar and counter with a right straight.

5. Manny should watch out for Oscar's upper cuts to the body and head. Oscar will be using it every time Manny comes in for an attack. Manny can block this with his right and counter with a left hook to the head of Oscar. This left hand counter punch will put Oscar to the canvas.

6. Stamina. This will decide the fight. Oscar lost his fights with Tito Trinidad and Shane Mosley because he lost stamina during the last 3 rounds. Manny's should perfectly condition his body to last 30 rounds. He should not eat too much before the fight because this will make him sluggish.

7. Pray. This is the most important of all the tips I can give. Prayer will give Manny the needed focus and guidance to overcome this difficult task.

Let us rally behind Manny Pacquiao. This is a small step for Manny, and a giant leap for Filipinos. We are behind you all the way Manny! God bless!

Thanks for the Comments

Thanks for those who regularly follow this blog. I agree with Zyra that probably an asteroid hit the earth 65 million years ago. Probably that asteroid brought with it Anderson Silva from another planet, and that is why he is unbeatable. No one has put up a real challenge to Silva except I guess, Yushin Okami, who almost beat him except for the disqualification.

I apologize for not being able to update this blog. I will do my best to answer all your questions in my email or through articles in this website. Anyway, I also have other blogs which I know will interest you. They are http://2008ipseminarqingdao.blogspot.com and http://memoriesinqingdao.blogspot.com.

These blogs are about the Seminar on Intellectual Property System and Protection held in Qingdao, China from September 21 to October 21, 2008. It is also about the lasting friendship between the really interesting men and women who made the experience in the wonderful city of Qingdao definitely memorable.

See you in cyberspace! Cheers to a wonderful and fulfilling life!

MMA Notes- Silva vs. Cote

The fight between Anderson Silva and Patrick Cote last Sunday did not enter the record books, not even the fairy tale book. The first round told it all. Silva did not have the fire to fight, Cote was trying hard to land a knockout punch. Silva played with Cote like he was his pet dog or something and Silva could have knocked him out in the first few minutes of round but he did not. silva could have ended it with a knee to the head, which he tried but did not do.

Why did he do that? I don't know. Some say Silva was mocking UFC President Dana White for giving him Patrick Cote, given Silva's superior skills and experience. Your guess is as good as mine. But every good fighter should always fight to the finish whoever the opponent. That would have been a better statement, rather than wasting the people's time and electricity by dragging the fight to three useless rounds.

I respect Silva, but last Sunday's fight made me think otherwise. Maybe Silva should fight Randy Couture instead. Now, that would be the fight of the century. Until then, I will not comment on any MMA fight anymore. This is my first and last. Good day!

Thrilla in Manila

Another Tribute to Boxing Champ Sugar Ray Robinson

One of Boxing's Best Fighters: Sugar Ray Robinson

TAX Seminar 2008

You are cordially invited to the

PCCI Tax Seminar 2008

on

August 22, 2008, Dusit Hotel Thani, Ayala Centre Makati

1:00pm- 5:00pm

Keynote Speaker

Deputy Commissioner Nelson Aspe

Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR)

on

Republic Act 9504

(Exempting Minimum Wage Earners from Payment of Income Tax, and Increasing Personal Exemption of all earners, and additional exemptions for individuals with Dependents/ Children)

Resource Speaker

Ms. Janette Cruz

Chief, Large Taxpayers Assistance Division I

BIR

on

"Updates on the Withholding Tax System"

Atty. Dennis Dimagiba

PCCI Tax Committee Member

on

"Bill on Local Taxation sponsored by Cong. George Arnaiz"

We enjoin you to take advantage of this rare privilege to have a dialogue with our distinguished speakers on taxation issues.

Seminar fee is only P1,300 plus 12% VAT for PCCI members and P1,500 plus 12% VAT for non-members. This includes the cost of materials and buffet snacks.

Please confirm your attendance with Noel Domingo or Nelda Sta.Maria of the PCCI Secretariat at telefax no. 896 4549 loc 128 or at email address noel.domingo@philippinechamber.com.

We look forward to your participation. Thank you very much for your continuing support to PCCI.

Stock Market TidBits: The Elliott Wave Principle

The Elliott wave principle is a form of technical analysis that attempts to forecast trends in the financial markets and other collective activities. It is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948), an accountant who developed the concept in the 1930s: he proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves. Elliott published his views of market behavior in the book The Wave Principle (1938), in a series of articles in Financial World magazine in 1939, and most fully in his final major work, Nature’s Laws – The Secret of the Universe (1946).[1] Elliott argued that because humans are themselves rhythmical, their activities and decisions could be predicted in rhythms, too. Critics argue the theory is pseudoscience, it is unprovable and is at odds with the efficient market hypothesis.

The wave principle posits that collective investor psychology (or crowd psychology) moves from optimism to pessimism and back again. These swings create patterns, as evidenced in the price movements of a market at every degree of trend.

From R.N. Elliott's essay, "The Basis of the Wave Principle," October 1940.Elliott's model says that market prices alternate between five waves and three waves at all degrees of trend, as the illustration shows. As these waves develop, the larger price patterns unfold in a self-similar fractal geometry. Within the dominant trend, waves 1, 3, and 5 are "motive" waves, and each motive wave itself subdivides in five waves. Waves 2 and 4 are "corrective" waves, and subdivide in three waves. In a bear market the dominant trend is downward, so the pattern is reversed—five waves down and three up. Motive waves always move with the trend, while corrective waves move opposite it.

Source: Wikipedia

Business Outlook for 2008

The first half of 2008 has definitely brought a malady of concerns blowing away most equity markets into down trends as they digested the financial problems in the US economy, higher fuel prices and inflation. I think that a recovery from this ordeal would take a little time as it looks to be completing only the 3rd wave of a bearish drive in Elliot’s 5-wave bear principle.

Saying this, I would also build in a possible medium sized recovery played out by an expected wave 4 rally in an effort to ease up current oversold conditions.

World indices bear down and may take time to recoup
US stock trends have officially reached bearish territories after losing more than 20% of its value. This draws out heavier supply problems for the world’s largest market- this triggering a global sympathy that has yet to see its potential flows. This bearish flow will likely precipitate until a gradual U-type reversal is shown or until a fear-based selling capitulation materializes (usually seen in wave 5) to rub out overhanging supply. In between this a major rally is still seen on the backdrop of oversold levels.

Oil prices still riding high but showing overbought warnings.
One of the world’s pestilent problems is the striking price of Oil which has accelerated its trending advance this year and has not yet let up. In fact it has been climbing at about $13/ barrel per month since March and unless major correction comes to disrupt this course, Oil can find itself at $150 in July and closer to $200 before the end of the year. However, heavy overbought levels will likely call upon a major correction that may come to test its trendline lows current at $135- a break of this would signal a medium term corrective phase.

Inflation triggers upward adjustments in I-rates seen in the medium term
The rise in the prices of Oil and consequently materials and commodities has driven global inflation upwards, particularly with more pressure in developing economies. US Bond yields, which serve as a good leading indicator to interest rates, have turned up in April breaking a 9-month down trend and offering a medium scale rally. This I feel could be limited in threat and scope focused only into the medium term since the long term trend angle of yields (since the 90s) continue to point down. I would say however that a flattening in the large trend angle may be possible as it has reached its 5-year low cycle.

Cotto - Margarito: One for the Books

In probably one of the most stunning upsets this year, Antonio Margarito brought Miguel Cotto to his knees on a gruelling tenth round knockout. Every boxer has been trying to avoid Margarito and they have a good reason to do so, after his relentless attack against Cotto. Cotto won most of the rounds after giving Margarito his punishing left and right hooks to the body. But Margarito gave no signs of backing down. Instead, he pursued Miguel around the ring without giving signs of wearing down and while punishing Cotto with his own devasting hooks to the body.

Everyone got the shock of their lives when Cotto, bloodied from the punishment he received from Antonio, kneeled on the tenth round with Margarito still continuing the attack. The referee gave Cotto the eight count. But that was enough for Cotto, who kneeled once again after the barage of punches from Margarito.

Will we be seeing a rematch or a possible Margarito - Hopkins fight in the near future? I will bet on the latter, but a possible rematch may be better for Cotto, who needs to redeem himself as boxing's best pound for pound fighter.

This is a good year for boxing indeed.

Pacquiao versus Dela Hoya

Both camps have already expressed their intention to fight it out in one of boxing history's biggest fights ever since Ali fought Foreman. The only question now is when and at what weight.

De la Hoya (5'10") is naturally bigger and taller than Pacquiao (5'6") and this may just decide the turning point of Pacman's carreer. He has shown that he can take the punch of the 135ers but can a bloated Pacquiao fight at 147? Can he evade the longer arms of Oscar and can he muster the necessary speed and power to bring down the Golden Boy?

My view is, if the fight takes place this year, there will probably be no knockdowns as each boxer has shown their capacity to take a punch. The fight will most likely go the distance, which is better for the younger Pacquiao. Manny will win if Manny outpunches and outboxes Oscar. Dela Hoya's killer left hook and left straight will still pose a problem if Pacman does not use his agility and foot speed to get away from dangerous situations and angles. Both may slow down in the middle of the fight starting round 7 up to round 12, for Dela Hoya, because of his age, and for Pacquiao, because his body may not be used to fighting in higher weight classes. Pacquiao will have to bring the fight to Oscar and go inside while punishing Oscar with short upper cuts to the body and head. Pacquiao cannot afford to fight from a distance knowing Oscar's dangerous left jabs.

All in all, in terms of speed and power, I vote for Pacman's victory by unanimous decision. But, definitely, this is going to be one hell of a fight.